XAU/USD Price Forecast Market

Participants submit their predicted price for XAU/USD at the settlement time. Forecasts are ranked by proximity to the actual settlement price — the closest forecast earns the highest reward share.

Each participant may place up to 100 forecast(s) per event. To participate, you must have at least 10 USDT in your Privy embedded wallet for each forecast you submit.

Timeline
Entry opens: Sep 20, 2026, 18:30 UTC
Entries lock: Sep 25, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Settlement: Sep 25, 2026, 18:30 UTC

Settlement
The XAU/USD price is sourced from the Pyth Network oracle at the exact settlement time. Pyth aggregates prices from 100+ institutional market makers and exchanges. The settlement price is committed on-chain and cannot be altered retroactively.

Ranking
Forecasts are ranked by absolute deviation from the settlement price. The closer your forecast, the higher your rank. When two or more forecasts land at the same distance, the following tie-breaking rules apply in order:

1. Earlier submission wins — the forecast confirmed on-chain at an earlier timestamp ranks higher.
Example: Alice and Bob both predict $3,000.00. Alice's transaction confirms at 13:42:05 UTC, Bob's at 13:42:09 UTC → Alice ranks higher.

2. Earlier block wins — if two forecasts share the exact same timestamp, the one included in the earlier block ranks higher.
Example: Two forecasts with identical deviation and timestamp appear in blocks 8,050,100 and 8,050,101 → the one in block 8,050,100 ranks higher.

3. Lower log index wins — if two forecasts land in the same block at the same timestamp, the one with the lower transaction log index (processed earlier within the block) ranks higher.
Example: Two forecasts in block 8,050,100 have log indices 4 and 7 → the one with log index 4 ranks higher.

All tie-breaking inputs (timestamp, block number, log index) are recorded on-chain at submission and cannot be altered retroactively.

Trading Schedule
This market tracks a precious metal price feed. Pyth data for metals is only available during active trading hours (UTC):
Mon–Thu 00:00–17:00, 18:00–24:00
Fri 00:00–17:00
Sat Closed
Sun 18:00–24:00
If the settlement time falls outside these hours, the most recent available price will be used. Plan your forecast around active trading windows.